An epidemiologist models the spread of a virus in a city of 2 million people. Initially, 0.1% are infected. Each day, the number of infected individuals increases by 15% of the current infected count, while 0.5% of infected recover. After 3 days, how many people are infected (rounded to the nearest whole number)?

Mon, 04 May 2026 10:09:48 +0000

Epidemiological Model: Simulating Virus Spread Over 3 Days in a 2 Million City Understanding how infectious diseases spread is crucial for public health planning. An epidemiologist recently modeled the progression of a virus in a city of 2 million people. Using a simplified daily growth and recovery model, we analyze how infection levels evolve over three days—starting from a small, initial cluster. ### Initial Infection Count
The city has 2,000,000 residents. Initially, only 0.1% are infected:
Initial infected = 2,000,000 × 0.001 = 2,000 people Each day, two key factors influence the count:
- Infection growth: The number of infected individuals increases by 15% of the current infected count.
- Recovery: Simultaneously, 0.5% of infected individuals recover and move to the recovered group.